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General insurance activities

C1: General insurance activities

Finance provides insurance and risk management services to Australian General Government Sector entities. The classes of business cover include: Liability, Property, Motor Vehicle, and Personal Accident and Travel.

These services are funded from the Comcover Special Account (refer to Note F3.1).

Policy and measurement

Premium revenue

Premium revenue includes amounts charged but excludes GST. Premiums are recognised as revenue over the period insured which is from 1 July to 30 June each year.

Notional reinsurance expense

Finance pays a notional reinsurance charge of $5.0 million to the Official Public Account (OPA) which is recognised as an expense when paid.

Reinsurance and other recoveries

Reinsurance and other recoveries received or receivable in respect of gross claims paid and movements in reinsurance and other recovery assets are recognised as revenue in the year they occur.

Reinsurance and other recovery assets are actuarially assessed as the present value of the expected future receipts,

calculated on the same basis as the outstanding claims liability.

Claims expense and outstanding claims liabilities

Claims expense represents claims payments and the movement in the gross outstanding claims liability.

The outstanding claims liability is actuarially assessed and measured at the central estimate of the present value of expected future payments of claims incurred at the reporting date with an additional risk margin to allow for inherent uncertainty in the central estimate. The expected future payments include those in relation to unpaid reported claims; claims incurred but not reported (IBNR); claims incurred but not enough reported (IBNER); and indirect expenses that are expected to be incurred in settling these claims. Changes in claims estimates are recognised in the surplus/deficit in the year in which the estimates are changed.

Assets backing general insurance liabilities

The balance of the Comcover Special Account and receivables from insurance activities are held to back general insurance liabilities. For further information in relation to the Comcover Special Account, refer to Note F3.1.

Key judgements and estimates

Finance takes all reasonable steps to ensure that it has appropriate information regarding its claims exposures. The claim estimates and judgements are regularly evaluated and updated based on historical experience and other factors. However, given the uncertainty in the estimation process, it is likely that the final outcome will prove to be different from the original liability established.

Finance’s activities are classified into two main categories: Property (Property, Motor Vehicle, and Personal Accident and Travel) and Liability. Different actuarial methods and assumptions are applied at a more granular level taking into account the characteristics of the class of business, claim type and the extent of the development of each past accident period.

The estimation of IBNR and IBNER are generally subject to a greater degree of uncertainty where claims notification and settlement may not happen for many years after the event giving rise to the claim. For this reason, Liability classes of business typically display greater variability between the initial estimates and final outcomes.

Key actuarial assumptions

The key actuarial assumptions for the determination of the outstanding claims liabilities are set out in the table below:

30 June 2018

30 June 2017

Property

Liability

Property

Liability

Average discount rate

2.0%

2.2%

1.9%

2.0%

Average inflation rate

2.4%

3.4%

2.2%

3.5%

Average weighted term to settlement (years)

1.6

2.7

1.5

2.1

Expense rate

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

1.5%

Risk margin

16.0%

19.0%

16.4%

13.4%

Process used to determine actuarial assumptions

Discount rate

To allow for the time value of money, projected payments are discounted at a risk free rate derived from market yields on Commonwealth Government securities at the reporting date.

Inflation rate

Claims inflation is incorporated into the resulting projected payments to allow for both expected levels of economic inflation and superimposed inflation. Economic inflation is based on economic indicators such as the consumer price index (CPI) and/or increases in average weekly earnings. Superimposed inflation is past claims inflation in excess of wage inflation. A review of past claims reveals no evidence of superimposed inflation.

Average weighted term to settlement

The average weighted term to settlement is based on historic payment patterns.

Expense rate

Claims handling expenses are calculated by reference to Finance’s claims handling remuneration agreements for direct expenses and internal costs for indirect expenses.

Risk Margin

The risk margin is assessed by examining the historical variability of the claims experience, considering industry studies and benchmarks, and applying actuarial judgement, especially in respect of uncertainties not reflected in the claims data. This assessment is performed for each class of business. Diversification benefit is allowed for, with consideration given to industry studies and benchmarks.

Sensitivity analysis

Finance has conducted a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of changes in the key underlying assumptions on the surplus/(deficit). The sensitivity analysis has been performed for each variable independently of all other changes and is net of reinsurance and other recoveries. The table below describes how a change in each assumption will affect the surplus/(deficit).

30 June 2018

30 June 2017

Property

Liability

Property

Liability

Assumption

Movement

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

Average discount rate

+1%

2,415

6,360

1,607

6,776

-1%

(2,319)

(6,048)

(1,647)

(6,987)

Average inflation rate

+1%

(2,485)

(6,601)

(1,627)

(6,818)

-1%

2,539

6,810

1,618

6,744

Average weighted term to settlement (years)

+1 year

(626)

(2,490)

(291)

(4,755)

-1 year

261

2,078

347

4,894

Expense rate

+1%

(1,438)

(2,324)

(1,071)

(3,246)

-1%

1,438

2,324

1,071

3,246

Risk margin

+1%

(1,257)

(1,984)

(937)

(2,907)

-1%

1,257

1,984

937

2,907

The movements are the absolute movement in the assumption (e.g. +1% increase in the expense rate for Property from 1.8% to 2.8%).

Insurance risk management

Finance is exposed to insurance risk, which is discussed below.

Objectives, policies and processes for managing insurance risk

Finance provides insurance and risk management services to deliver a net benefit to the Australian Government over the longer term. The transfer of insurance risk from participating general government sector entities offers the most comprehensive and cost effective approach to the management of risk exposures. The provision of a captive fund focuses on improving risk identification and management in entities and increases in transparency and accountability to the Australian Government and the public.

Key processes to manage insurance risk include:

  • Detailed risk exposure surveys and benchmarking tools identifying insurable risks;
  • Actuarial modelling of claims history, exposures and industry experience to provide an estimate of expected claims costs for the insured year and to assist in the determination of the annual premium collection;
  • Claim management and investigation processes;
  • Appointment of an independent actuary for valuation services of the outstanding claims liability;
  • WoAG policy development and risk management education to improve risk awareness and capability of fund members; and
  • Governance frameworks within Finance.

Concentration of insurance risk

No reinsurance policies were placed in 2017-2018 (2016-2017: nil), reflecting the capacity of the Australian Government to cost-effectively self-insure against infrequent large claims.

C1.1 Underwriting result

Departmental

30 June

30 June

2018

2017

$'000

$'000

Direct premium revenue

Premium revenue

138,344

140,290

Premium revenue eliminated on consolidation

1,181

1,176

Total direct premium revenue

139,525

141,466

Notional reinsurance expense

(5,000)

(5,000)

Net premium revenue

134,525

136,466

Net incurred claims

Insurance claims

(97,246)

(163,993)

Reinsurance and other recoveries revenue

299

1,823

Total net claims

(96,947)

(162,170)

Other underwriting expenses

(8,282)

(9,248)

Underwriting result

29,296

(34,952)

Revenue from government

8,004

9,067

Operating surplus/(deficit)

37,300

(25,885)

C1.2 Net claims incurred

30 June 2018

30 June 2017

Current year

Prior years

Total

Current year

Prior years

Total

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

Gross claims incurred

Undiscounted

110,459

(15,748)

94,711

103,563

59,764

163,327

Discount and discount movement

(6,262)

4,857

(1,405)

(5,658)

2,180

(3,478)

Gross claims incurred discounted

104,197

(10,891)

93,306

97,905

61,944

159,849

Reinsurance and other recoveries

Undiscounted

(678)

454

(224)

(472)

(1,380)

(1,852)

Discount and discount movement

2

(77)

(75)

2

27

29

Reinsurance and other recoveries discounted

(676)

377

(299)

(470)

(1,353)

(1,823)

Net claims incurred

103,521

(10,514)

93,007

97,435

60,591

158,026

Claims handling expense

3,940

4,144

Total net claims

96,947

162,170

The $10.5 million decrease in prior years net claims incurred is due to valuation releases arising from overall favourable claims experience in the Liability and Property claims categories.

C1.3 Reinsurance and other recoveries receivable

Departmental

30 June

30 June

2018

2017

$'000

$'000

Reinsurance and other recoveries

Reinsurance and other recoveries

3,363

6,368

Discount to present value

(329)

(404)

Total reinsurance and other recoveries

3,034

5,964

C1.4 Outstanding claims liability

Departmental

30 June

30 June

2018

2017

$'000

$'000

Gross claims liability - undiscounted

335,740

393,671

Discount to present value

(16,456)

(15,363)

Gross claims liability - discounted

319,284

378,308

Claims handling expense

4,860

6,062

Gross central estimate

324,144

384,370

Risk margin

57,768

54,293

Outstanding claims liability

381,912

438,663

Risk margin adopted

17.8%

14.1%

Probability of adequacy of the risk margin

75%

75%

Reconciliation of the movement in discounted outstanding claims liability

30 June 2018

30 June

2017

Property

Liability

Total

Total

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

Net outstanding claims liability at the beginning of the financial year

108,671

324,028

432,699

346,204

Incurred claims

43,462

60,059

103,521

97,435

Claims payments

(23,357)

(123,471)

(146,828)

(71,531)

Unwinding of discount

1,370

3,673

5,043

4,209

Risk margin release

(2,415)

(5,454)

(7,869)

(10,372)

Changes in assumptions and experience

17,641

(25,329)

(7,688)

66,754

Net outstanding claims liability at the end of the financial year

145,372

233,506

378,878

432,699

Reinsurance and other recoveries

496

2,538

3,034

5,964

Gross outstanding claims liability at the end of the financial year

145,868

236,044

381,912

438,663

C1.5 Claims development table

The following table shows the development of the estimated undiscounted outstanding claims relative to the ultimate expected claims for the 10 most recent accident years.

Prior

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

$'000

Estimate of net ultimate claims costs

At end of accident year

45,062

50,778

121,801

61,550

66,779

114,162

102,138

91,686

86,286

93,055

One year later

43,312

48,922

108,067

70,345

63,441

106,114

119,144

87,813

91,391

Two years later

48,191

47,317

100,453

67,843

65,399

96,653

218,627

96,971

Three years later

45,043

70,257

91,789

68,396

62,028

89,631

215,052

Four years later

46,681

65,808

84,123

67,312

58,498

82,685

Five years later

47,758

65,956

82,395

62,705

55,203

Six years later

44,336

51,423

80,279

59,872

Seven years later

44,757

49,163

80,399

Eight years later

44,909

48,760

Nine years later

45,057

Estimate of net ultimate claims costs

45,057

48,760

80,399

59,872

55,203

82,685

215,052

96,971

91,391

93,055

Cumulative payments

(44,896)

(48,196)

(78,000)

(50,895)

(47,361)

(53,427)

(153,105)

(33,659)

(21,566)

(10,553)

Net claims liability - undiscounted

6,137

161

564

2,399

8,977

7,842

29,258

61,947

63,312

69,825

82,502

332,924

Discount to present value

(168)

(2)

(12)

(58)

(244)

(217)

(1,111)

(2,352)

(3,095)

(3,723)

(5,214)

(16,196)

Net claims liability - discounted

5,969

159

552

2,341

8,733

7,625

28,147

59,595

60,217

66,102

77,288

316,728

Claims handling expense

4,860

Net central estimate

321,588

Net risk margin

57,290

Total net outstanding claims liability

378,878

Reinsurance and other recoveries

3,034

Total gross outstanding claims liability

381,912

The claims development table discloses amounts net of reinsurance and other recoveries to give the most meaningful insight into the impact on surplus/(deficit).