Islamic extremists retain the freedom to operate in less-governed areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their frequent attacks on government interests, security forces and minorities will continue. Islamic State—Khorasan Province in Afghanistan has transitioned to a clandestine insurgency after losing territory, but its high-profile attacks persist. Elsewhere in the region, Islamic extremist ideology is still radicalising individuals and groups who conduct low-capability attacks.

The full impact of COVID-19 has not yet been realised; however, it has had limited effect on the terrorist threat in South Asia to date. While decreased tourism reduces the likelihood of Westerners being attacked, the anti-Western intent of some extremists is unchanged.