ARPC commissioned and specified the development of world class geospatial catastrophe modelling through its collaboration with both Geoscience Australia (GA), Australia’s public-sector geoscience organisation and Risk Frontiers.

Three-dimensional blast model

ARPC uses its insurer customers’ sum insured aggregate figures and building sum insured surveys in the three-dimensional (3D) blast model, developed in collaboration with GA. ARPC’s 3D geospatial blast model is intended to accurately analyse pressure waves and resulting damage from blasts in all Tier A locations.

The blast model includes the most built-up CBD areas of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart with multi-location analysis conducted in those cities to review expected losses from different sized explosive charges.

Plume model

ARPC, in collaboration with GA, maintains its capability to analyse exposure and potential damage from the release of a biological or chemical agent in Sydney and Melbourne CBDs. This capability draws on the expertise of several government agencies including GA, the Bureau of Meteorology, Defence Science and Technology Group and the Australian Federal Police, as well as external consultants.

ARPC regularly analyses various plume scenarios including mobile drone delivery systems of selected agents in Sydney and Melbourne.

GA forms an integral part of ARPC’s blast and plume analytical capability. ARPC has entered a three-year maintenance and development program for 2018-21 to keep both models current and fulfil ARPC’s needs.

Geospatial model

During 2019-20, ARPC has been working with Risk Frontiers on a two-dimensional (2D) blast model that incorporates some three-dimensional attributes that covers all mainland locations in Australia. This geospatial catastrophe model is based on the original 2D blast model developed by Risk Frontiers in 2007 and has been commissioned as at 30 June 2020.

Exposure risk management

A key Australian Government expectation is that ARPC will be able to advise the Minister of the estimated insured losses (under the Scheme) in the event of a DTI. This estimate will be used to inform the calculation of an appropriate reduction percentage.

To address this issue, ARPC implemented a strategy to develop its capability to:

• analyse aggregate sum insured information
• estimate its probable losses in the event of a DTI, and
• provide evidence-based advice to the Minister on an appropriate reduction percentage.